AI 进步呈垂直爆发，前沿从业者与大众鸿沟急剧扩大，组织与个人面临“永不掉队”的终极挑战
AI Progress Goes Vertical: The Widening Chasm Between Frontier Builders and Everyone Else, and the Existential Challenge of Keeping Up
Aaron Levie (@levie) — CEO of Box
"It's almost incomprehensible how wide the distance is between someone who's working at the frontier with AI and basically everyone else right now."
"现在，那些身处 AI 前沿的人与其他所有人之间的差距之大，几乎令人难以理解。"
"The crazy thing is these lines are not converging, but only growing farther apart."
"疯狂的是，这些差距不仅没有收敛，反而正在越拉越大。"
"If the curve of AI progress had leveled off, it would certainly have given most people and companies time to catch up or implement their workflows in a standardized way. The technology would have neutralized competitive advantage because everyone would be using it the same way."
"如果 AI 进步的曲线已经趋于平缓，那无疑会给大多数人、大多数公司留出追赶的时间，或者以标准化的方式将 AI 融入工作流程。技术本身会消解竞争优势，因为每个人都会以同样的方式使用它。"
"But what's happened is the opposite. The curve of AI progress is basically going vertical right now, which means if you had codified your processes 3-6 months ago you're likely already behind again. Now imagine most companies that kicked into gear a year ago and thought that they were done. Even further behind now."
"但现实恰恰相反。AI 进步的曲线现在几乎垂直向上，这意味着如果你在三到六个月前才将流程固化下来，很可能已经再次落后了。再想想那些一年前才开始行动、还以为万事大吉的公司——现在更是远远落后了。"
"I've never seen a technology in my life and career that improves at this rate, which consequently means you need to upgrade your expectations at a similar rate. Our brains weren't wired for this, and our organizational change management processes certainly weren't either."
"在我的人生和职业生涯中，从未见过以如此速度迭代的技术；这也意味着你需要以相近的速度更新自己的预期。我们的大脑并非为此而生，我们的组织变革管理流程当然更非如此。"
"With any form of recursive self improvement, things just get wilder. It's a time when you will need to be constantly reevaluating the things that didn't work just a couple months ago to see if they now can be solved. AI native companies certainly have a strong advantage due to this right now, so now it comes down to can the bigger companies keep up. Wild times."
"伴随任何形式的递归式自我改进，局势只会愈发狂野。这是一个你需要不断重新评估、那些仅仅几个月前还无解的问题，如今是否已可破解的时代。AI 原生公司因此目前拥有显著优势，所以现在的问题是：更大的公司能否跟得上。疯狂的时代。"
评论区精选 / Selected Comments
Shane to the B (@ShaneBOly)
"explained my agent setup at dinner and my family looked at me like I joined a cult"
"晚餐时我向家人解释了我的 AI agent 配置，他们看我的眼神就像我加入了什么邪教"
Justin Monk (@JustinMonk0)
"4 years ago, AI couldn't do basic math. Now it is solving PhD level math. I am excited for the rest of life."
"四年前，AI 还不会做基础数学。现在它在解博士级别的数学题。我对余生充满期待。"
MC Solar Wind (@MCSolarWind)
"'AI will never be able to write a paper or create art.' — Serious people in 2022/early 2023"
"'AI 永远不可能写论文或创作艺术。'——2022 年/2023 年初的那些'严肃人士'"
Feifei Qiu (@feifei_qiu)
"not falling behind is almost a full time job now"
"现在，不掉队几乎就是一份全职工作"